Index Investor Feature Articles
Sep18: Our Asset Class Valuation Methodologies
Oct18: Why After a Period of High Uncertainty Persistent Deflation is More Likely than High Inflation
Nov18: Examining the Arguments for and Against a Transition to the High Inflation Regime
Dec18: The Fed Calls Time on the United States' Hidden Debt Crisis: Public Sector Pensions
Jan19: Understanding the Critical Difference Between Macro Threats and Threat Signatures
Feb19: Understanding and Predicting Uncertainty Shocks: An Update to Our 2010 Article
Mar19: Improving Your Forecasting Skills: Defining Questions, Establishing Base Rates, and Weighing New Evidence to Update Probabilities
Apr19: The Role of Conviction Narratives in Forecasting: What Regime Will the Macro System be in Three Years from Now?
May19: Multipath Analysis: A Systematic Process for Reducing the Dimensionality of Global Macro Forecasting Challenges
Jun19: Drivers of China-US Dynamics and Outcomes Over the Next Seven Years
Jul19: The Potential Impact of Artificial Intelligence Technologies on Macro Regime Probabilities and Broad Asset Class Returns
Aug19: The Next Downturn: How Different? How Deep? How Long?
Sep19: Future Labor Productivity Growth: The Supply Side Secular Stagnation Story
Oct19: The Macro and Asset Allocation Implications of Environmental Trends and Uncertainties
Nov19: Will the New Flows of Assets Into ESG Funds Produce Alpha for Investors?
Dec19: What Do We Know About Escaping the Persistent Deflation Regime?
Jan20: Global Macro Risk Dynamics in the 2020s and Beyond
Feb20: Civilization Decline and Collapse: What are the Warning Signs?
Mar20: Why Did Markets Take So Long to Respond to COVID19?
Apr20: COVID's Impact in 2023: Trends, Uncertainties, Scenarios, and Forecast Probabilities
May20: The Complex Dynamics of Our New Cold War: A Brief Net Assessment
Jun20: Making Good Decisions in Highly Uncertain Situations
Jul20: Can the US Successfully Meet the Threat Posed by Worsening Inequality?
Aug20: Joe Biden Wants to Remove Carbon From US Electricity Generation by 2035. Is That Realistic?
Sep20: An Assessment of COVID-19 Vaccine Uncertainties and Probabilities
Oct20: Will Xi Jinping Launch a Surprise Attack on Taiwan Before the 20th Party Congress of the CCP in November 2022? And What Happens if He Does?
Nov20: Guest Feature: This Time It's Different: Avoiding the Costly Mistake of Not Taking Bitcoin Seriously, by Ned Horsey
Dec20: The Case Against Bitcoin
Jan21: Annual Update of Our Detailed Three Year Macro Regime Forecast
Feb21: Ten Years Later: Threats to Political Legitimacy Have Grown More Dangerous
Mar21: The Probability of a US-China War Over Taiwan Is Increasing
Apr21: Will Reskilling Work? And What Happens If It Fails?
May21: Faster Productivity Growth Is Critical. But Will It Happen?
Jun21: Thoughts for New Graduates: The Impact of System Factors, Skill, and Luck on Your Future
Jul21: Asset Allocation in a Complex World (15 years of model portfolio results across six currencies)
Aug21: Should You Add an Allocation to Infrastructure to Your Portfolio?
Sep21: Should You Invest in Grains?
Oct/Nov21: The Essence of Successful Investing and Risk Management: Forming and Updating Accurate Beliefs
Dec/Jan22: Underfunded Public Sector Pensions: The Voldemort of Emerging Threats
Q1-2022: The World Turned Upside Down: Current Situation, Critical Uncertainties, Most Likely and Most Dangerous Macro Scenarios, Financial Market Regime Probabilities, and Their Portfolio Implications