Welcome to The Index Investor
Global Macro Analysis and Asset Allocation Insights
Download a Free Sample Copy of our January 2020 Issue, which includes a feature article on "Global Macro Risk Dynamics in the 2020s and Beyond".
Since 1997, our purpose has been to help investors, corporate, and government leaders better anticipate, more accurately assess, and adapt in time to emerging macro threats.
We focus on providing insights about the evolving dynamics of the global macro system and the emergent threats they produce that lie beyond the detection horizon and analytical capabilities of quantitative algorithmic methods. We then translate these into probability forecasts for different macro regimes, and use them to adjust our model portfolio's asset allocation. That's our edge — and potentially yours too, if you subscribe.
Rather than statistical or machine learning, our approach more closely resembles estimative intelligence analysis, which employs a combination of bottom-up and top-down sensemaking processes. These were described in Pirolli and Card's classic article, "The Sensemaking Process and Leverage Points for Analyst Technology”, which includes this very useful graphic:
Here's what one subscriber recently wrote to us: "I am delighted to get your analysis. We get everything from Wall Street, and they all seem to be saying the same thing. Your take is greatly appreciated." Another said "your research is unique. There's nothing else like this out there."
We are affiliated with Britten Coyne Partners, which provides strategic risk related consulting services to management teams and boards, and the Strategic Risk Institute LLC, which provides online and in-person education offerings leading to a Certificate in Strategic Risk Governance and Management.
Successful investing is ultimately based on accurate forecasting. Here's a brief description of our methodology:
Compared to new quantitative data, new qualitative data diffuses more slowly across market participants, and is only gradually incorporated into asset prices.
This time delay, plus the accuracy of their mental models, enables astute investors to avoid large losses by taking action before the market's dominant narrative changes.
To achieve this goal, we use a method called Multipath Analysis, in which we collect and synthesize high value information (threat indicators and surprises) in the areas of technology, health and disease, energy and the environment, the economy, national security, society, and politics.
Their complex interaction over time produces the effects we later observe in the form of investor beliefs and behavior, from which emerge financial market valuations, volumes, and returns.